Is Hong Kong ambitious enough in its carbon reduction targets? Are adaptation people in Manchester networked well enough? What causes the ups and downs in public concern about climate change?  All these questions and more are posed in articles listed in the “Monthly Journal Overview” (MoJO). This one has been collated by Mark Haworth and Kate Matthews, stellar volunteers for Manchester Climate Monthly…

Welcome to the second edition of MoJO (Monthly Journal Overview): a monthly listing of academic articles about climate change and Manchester or the U.K. – articles by Manchester based academics, articles about Manchester or the U.K. and other “particularly interesting” articles that have appeared in journals. This does not include all items published in the issue of the journals we kept an eye on – just those of particular relevance.

It will be published and sent out on the first of the month. We think that the main audience will be academics and interested activists.

For “terms and conditions” see the end of the list. Any feedback on what you think of it, what would make it more useful to you etc. would be appreciated. Similarly if you know of any suitable articles we have missed please tell us about them too, we can always include them next time.

Hope you enjoy it!

Mark Haworth & Kate Matthews (MCFly Volunteers)

(Journals are listed alphabetically, the journals covered in this issue are; Cities, Climatic Change, EcoCities, Energy Policy, Environment and Planning B, Environment and Planning C, Environment and Urbanisation, European Planning Studies, Global Environmental Change and International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control)

Cities
Volume 29, Issue 2, April 2012, Pages 88-98
A critical review of Hong Kong’s proposed climate change strategy and action agenda
Mee Kam Ng
Abstract
Climate change was not on the policy agenda in Hong Kong before 2007. In 2010, a consultation document, Hong Kong’s Climate Change Strategy and Action Agenda, was published proposing a voluntary carbon intensity reduction target of 50-60% by 2020 (from the 2005 level). This review attempts to understand why there was a sudden shift to climate issues and whether the proposed strategy, actions and targets are appropriate to the climate change challenges faced by the city. Through synthesizing existing literature on climate change at the city level, a framework outlining possible actions at the strategic, knowledge accumulation and implementation phases is developed to position Hong Kong’s experience. It is found that Hong Kong’s move towards climate change is strongly affected by China’s efforts. The city is facing some real climate change threats. However, while the carbon intensity reduction target looks impressive, it is actually too modest for the city’s developed economy. The city needs to reflect critically on its economics-first strategy and undertake more refined vulnerability studies and risk assessments to identify spatially and sectorally-specific adaptation measures. To be a responsible global citizen and to pursue sustainable development, Hong Kong needs more concerted and comprehensive efforts to combat climate change.

Climatic Change
Published online Thursday, February 02, 2012
Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002-2010
Robert J. Brulle, Jason Carmichael and J. Craig Jenkins
Abstract
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the factors affecting U.S. public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2010. Utilizing Stimson’s method of constructing aggregate opinion measures, data from 74 separate surveys over a 9-year period are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. We examine five factors that should account for changes in levels of concern: 1) extreme weather events, 2) public access to accurate scientific information, 3) media coverage, 4) elite cues, and 5) movement/countermovement advocacy. A time-series analysis indicates that elite cues and structural economic factors have the largest effect on the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, this coverage is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Weather extremes have no effect on aggregate public opinion. Promulgation of scientific information to the public on climate change has a minimal effect. The implication would seem to be that information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.

EcoCities
Carter, J. G. 2012. Land use change scenarios for Greater Manchester: analysis and implications for climate change adaptation EcoCities project, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Summary
As well as downscaling future climate projections for the UK to the Greater Manchester scale (Cavan 2011), the EcoCities project developed two scenarios, the ‘long descent’ and the ‘upward spiral’ (Carter 2011). These draw different narratives of how Greater Manchester may develop over the coming decades based on ten ‘drivers of change’ identified as important by stakeholders. This paper reports on the outcomes of a research task focused on exploring future land use change over Greater Manchester using the EcoCities scenarios as a framework. We have focused on this issue because evolving land use patterns, and the spatial planning policies that shape them, will influence how the conurbation will adapt to the changing climate.

The research employs the use of Metronamica, a spatial decision support tool designed to assist planners, decision makers and researchers in understanding future land use change. It provides a platform for simulating and assessing potential land use change up to fifty years into the future. By using the EcoCities scenarios as a framework, Metronamica can offer a realistic, albeit not accurate, projection of land use change in the conurbation. Indeed, the research is scenario-based acknowledging that we cannot predict future land use with any degree of accuracy. There are simply too many variables that could influence land use patterns in Greater Manchester over the coming decades.

The results detailed in this report indicate that different land use futures will have contrasting effects on climate change impacts and adaptation responses in Greater Manchester. This demonstrates that when considering adaptation responses, it is vital that attention is paid not just to climate change but also to land use change. These observations will assist the development of adaptation policies and strategies attuned to the importance of current and potential future land use across Greater Manchester.

EcoCities
Kazmierczak, A. 2012. Working together? Inter-organisational cooperation on climate change adaptation EcoCities project, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Summary
Adaptive actions are necessary in order to maintain the liveability of cities, which face higher temperatures and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. Due to the complexity of urban systems, effective planning and implementation of adaptation to climate change impacts in urban areas requires a collaborative approach between different types of organisations.

This paper investigates the extent of inter-organisational cooperation on climate change adaptation in the context of Greater Manchester (GM). Social network analysis was carried out in order to explore the levels of communication and collaboration on climate change adaptation among 93 public, private and third sector stakeholders at spatial scales ranging from local to national.

The results emphasise the importance of regional public bodies as climate change adaptation knowledge brokers and stress the role of the third-sector organisations in facilitating collaboration on climate change adaptation. The findings also indicate strong position of organisations at local and GM levels in both the communication and collaboration networks. The abolition of the regional tier of government and the threat of removal or restructuring of certain non-departmental public bodies (NDPBs) may have a negative impact on the density and functioning of the network of organisations involved in climate change adaptation in the context of GM.

Energy Policy
Volume 43, April 2012, Pages 184-190
The relative greenhouse gas impacts of realistic dietary choices
M. Berners-Lee, C. Hoolohana,H. Cammacka, C.N. Hewitt
Abstract
The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embodied in 61 different categories of food are used, with information on the diet of different groups of the population (omnivorous, vegetarian and vegan), to calculate the embodied GHG emissions in different dietary scenarios. We calculate that the embodied GHG content of the current UK food supply is 7.4 kg CO2e person-1 day-1, or 2.7 t CO2e person-1 y-1. This gives total food-related GHG emissions of 167 Mt CO2e (1 Mt=106 metric tonnes; CO2e being the mass of CO2 that would have the same global warming potential, when measured over 100 years, as a given mixture of greenhouse gases) for the entire UK population in 2009. This is 27% of total direct GHG emissions in the UK, or 19% of total GHG emissions from the UK, including those embodied in goods produced abroad. We calculate that potential GHG savings of 22% and 26% can be made by changing from the current UK-average diet to a vegetarian or vegan diet, respectively. Taking the average GHG saving from six vegetarian or vegan dietary scenarios compared with the current UK-average diet gives a potential national GHG saving of 40 Mt CO2e y-1. This is equivalent to a 50% reduction in current exhaust pipe emissions from the entire UK passenger car fleet. Hence realistic choices about diet can make substantial differences to embodied GHG emissions.

Environment and Planning B
2012 volume 39(1) pages 120 – 136
Scenarios of future built environment for coastal risk assessment of climate change using a GIS-based multicriteria analysis
Mustafa Mokrech, Robert J Nicholls, Richard J Dawson
Abstract
Assessments of changing risks in the future often focus on climate change alone, and ignore other relevant drivers such as socioeconomic changes. If other relevant drivers are considered at all, expert judgment is often used to create scenarios and the underlying logic is not always apparent. In this paper we describe an algorithm-based method for developing quantitative future scenarios of the built environment in East Anglia, England with a focus on a coastal management unit, designated sub-cell 3b. The four UK Foresight socioeconomic storylines were inputs to the study: World Markets, Local Stewardship, Global Sustainability, and National Enterprise. On the basis of estimated regional demand, the distributions of new residential and nonresidential properties were calculated under all scenarios using a GIS-based multicriteria analysis. The buildings are distributed across a large swath of East Anglia using four attraction factors with different weightings to reflect the storylines. The factors are the existing settlements, transport networks, coastline, and floodplain. The results show increases in the number of residential and nonresidential properties within the coastal flood plain of sub-cell 3b under all socioeconomic scenarios, especially under World Markets and National Enterprise. These increases may lead to a significant increase in flood risk and to a lesser extent in the erosion risk in the study site. More importantly, the multicriteria method presented here demonstrates an algorithm-based approach that provides feasible and flexible tools for the development of socioeconomic scenarios in the context of impact and risk assessment. Hence, the scenario assumptions are explicit, reproducible and easily adjustable, as required. Keywords: built environment, socioeconomic scenarios, multicriteria analysis, flood risk, climate change, GIS

Environment and Planning C
2012 volume 30(1) pages 162 – 179
The challenge of policy coordination for sustainable sociotechnical transitions: the case of the zero-carbon homes agenda in England Dan Greenwood
Abstract
Emerging in recent research on sociotechnical transitions towards a low-carbon economy is the question of the extent to which such transitions require centralised, intentional coordination by government. Drawing from Hayek’s conceptualisation of coordination, I evaluate the effectiveness of policy for low-carbon and zero-carbon homes in England. A detailed analysis is presented of how policy makers address complex choices and trade-offs as well as significant uncertainty. Particular attention is given to those policy decisions which are widely agreed by stakeholders to cause distortive effects. The focus here on the impacts of policy definition and delivery in terms of multiple evaluative criteria can complement and enrich the more process-orientated cross-sector and multilevel analyses that predominate in existing research on policy coordination. Furthermore, the coordination problems identified yield further insights into the actual and potential effectiveness of policy processes in shaping complex sociotechnical transitions.

Environment and Urbanisation
October 2011; 23 (2) 463-485
Implementing urban participatory climate change adaptation appraisals: a methodological guideline
Caroline Moser, Alfredo Stein University of Manchester
Abstract
This paper provides conceptual and methodological guidelines for researchers seeking to undertake an urban participatory climate change adaptation appraisal (PCCAA), illustrated with examples from appraisals in Mombasa (Kenya) and Estelí (Nicaragua). It highlights the importance of hearing local people’s voices regarding incrementally worsening and often unrecorded severe weather. The conceptual framework distinguishes between the analysis of asset vulnerability and the identification of asset-based operational strategies, and sets out a number of methodological principles and practices for undertaking a PCCAA. This PCCAA addressed five main themes: community characteristics; severe weather; vulnerability to severe weather; asset adaptation; and institutions supporting local adaptation. For each of these, it identified potential tools for eliciting information, illustrated by examples from Mombasa and Estelí.

European Planning Studies
Volume 20, Issue 1, 2012
Special Issue: Climate Change and Sustainable Cities
This whole issue is worth looking at and can be found here.

Global Environmental Change
Available online 24 February 2012
Declining public concern about climate change: Can we blame the great recession?
Lyle Scruggs, Salil Benegal
Abstract
Social surveys suggest that the American public’s concern about climate change has declined dramatically since 2008. This has led to a search for explanations for this decline, and great deal of speculation that there has been a fundamental shift in public trust in climate science. We evaluate over thirty years of public opinion data about global warming and the environment, and suggest that the decline in belief about climate change is most likely driven by the economic insecurity caused by the Great Recession. Evidence from European nations further supports an economic explanation for changing public opinion. The pattern is consistent with more than forty years of public opinion about environmental policy. Popular alternative explanations for declining support – partisan politicization, biased media coverage, fluctuations in short-term weather conditions – are unable to explain the suddenness and timing of opinion trends. The implication of these findings is that the “crisis of confidence” in climate change will likely rebound after labor market conditions improve, but not until then.

International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
Volume 8, May 2012, Pages 12-21
Overall environmental impacts of CCS technologies–A life cycle approach
Petra Zappa, Andrea Schreibera, Josefine Marxa, Mike Hainesb, Jürgen-Friedrich Hakea, John Galeb
Abstract
In the last decade the environmental performance of climate effective carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) considering also other environmental effects has become focus of several studies. With various technological CCS options under development, the field of possible technical solutions is hardly covered yet. This paper identifies technologies whose environmental effects have been analysed from a life cycle perspective.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has proved to be a helpful tool to investigate the environmental consequences associated with the introduction of CCS. Even though, big differences in underlying assumptions of existing studies make comparison difficult, some general effects can be described.

In general the intended reduction in GWP by introducing CO2 capture (up to – 85% hard coal oxyfuel, – 95% lignite oxyfuel, – 80% natural gas post-combustion) is combined with an increase of other environmental effects, regardless of capture technology, time horizon or fuel considered. Performing the normalisation step shows that acidification and human toxicity potential have to be watched as well.

Additionally, three parameter sets have been identified, which have a significant impact on the effects: (a) development of plant efficiencies and energy penalties; (b) capture efficiency; (c) fuel origin and composition.

MoJO Terms and Conditions

This service is provided as a free summary of recent climate research (especially by and about Manchester UK). It does NOT pretend to be a comprehensive overview of climate research. Non-inclusion of articles and books is not (usually) a judgment on the quality of that work, but a reflection on our human fallibility and time-poverty.

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