Real Clothes for the Emperor– Facing the challenges of climate change

By Professor Kevin Anderson, 21 June 2012, George Begg Building, University of Manchester

Report by Laurence Menhinick

If invited to one of Professor Anderson’s lecture by a mate, press a) to listen in awe, despair and be damned, or press b) to run away and be damned … If you missed it don’t fret: you can get depressed in the comfort of your own home by watching the whole presentation on the DfID website. Alternatively there’s always the MCFly interview.

Joke aside, when viewed in details the real science is no laughing matter, for indeed the whole problematic and evidence of the +2ºC or +6ºC debate are coming at us at breakneck speed. The past 30 years or so have been spent in talking, measuring, discussing and warning us about the possibility and serious impact of a +2ºC rise – all the while carrying on as usual, and virtually doubling CO₂ emissions.

The problem is that the target is in fact moving constantly because our response to the scientific data has been based on economic assumptions, emission assumptions, technological assumptions, population assumptions, North/South development and cuts assumptions… you get the drift – all virtual, academic and widely optimistic scenarii where newly industrialized nations are not even taken into account, and all blatantly designed to please economists.

But wait: apparently we still have a 5 year window to limit our impact to 2ºC.

5 years. Of limit to economic growth, drastic cuts in energy CO₂ emissions, and a coordinated, worldwide, long-term commitment to walk in the same direction.

Somehow…

I can’t really see…

Err…

So we are ……….* here.

Now of course there’s always the next level we could aim for, the +4ºC with emissions peaking in 2020. (which would only require a 3.5% reduction CO₂ emissions p.a.)

Sounds OK?

But the real life impact is unthinkable: + 6ºC to + 12ºC increases in temperature on the hottest days in China, Europe and the States and massive crop failures all round. And we’re not even mentioning massive human costs, sea level rise, positive feedback effects, biodiversity loss, and all the unknowns of unpredicted events this may trigger. So between the rock and the hard place, drastic emission reductions win every time.

So, what now? Well, remember this: this is all demand driven. My demands, my consumption, my lifestyle, my choices. The top 1% emitting 50% of the CO_2, that’s me. The repercussions of my decisions are wider than they look. Professor Anderson still believes there is a chance to minimize climate change and we should work at it as much as possible, especially not give up. Education and leading by example he told me. I’m no saint obviously, not even a real activist yet, but I’ll do my best and a bit more. Let’s all get on with it, and actively influence who we can where we can. Urgently.

Laurence Menhinick

* insert appropriate exclamation of your choice.