The article below appeared on the front cover of Manchester Climate Monthly #10 (click on the image on the right to get through to it). We publish it today because a) articles like this have appeared about a potentially cold winter (courtesy of “British Weather Services,” not the Met Office) and b) because we are still waiting for a comment/information from a public sector PR flak (she knows who she is) who has unaccountably gotten… cold feet.

Would you be okay if it snowed for seven days? Would you neighbours? Your parents? Scientists say that colder winters may be on the way for the UK but how prepared is Manchester? According to our research, not very. Although the council has numerous policies around issues such flooding and national emergencies, they have no council-level plans to help them deal with heavy snow fall. MCFly investigates.

Climate alarm bells have been ringing for some time now but the unprecedented Arctic sea ice loss this year (it exceeded the 2007 record by an area larger than the state of Texas) has been declared the ‘clearest signal yet of global warming’. Indeed, scientists say the melt may bring harsher winters to Europe. Dan Williams, a Met Office spokesman and lead for climate and weather science, told MCFly that “there is tentative evidence to suggest there is a connection between low Arctic sea-ice extent and colder than average winters in northern Europe. However, more research needs to be done into this area… At this stage it’s far too early to make any predictions about this winter for the UK.”

Although many scientists are wary of making predictions, the need to prepare for worst case scenarios is a no-brainer. MCFly got in touch with the council and asked them for their policies for dealing with heavy snow fall. They replied seven days later, with a statement. We again asked for policies and they sent us a link to a national page on dealing with snow. We again asked for council-level plans and got nothing. Here’s that statement anyway:

“Extreme weather can happen over widespread geographical areas, so we work closely with local authorities and emergency services across Greater Manchester to ensure that contingency plans are in place. Our key priority is to support residents and businesses, to ensure that life goes on as normal as much as possible. It is important to support vulnerable people and to keep essential services, such as GP surgeries, schools and council services, open for the community.”

So no indication of the systematic way the council is actually going to help Mancunians deal with extreme winter weather. MCFly then decided to get in touch with the emergency services and see if they were any more prepared.

Yvonne Davies from the Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust informed us that each year the Trust receives a Cold Weather Plan which is sent out by the Department of Health. “From this the Trust, in conjunction with the Local Resilience Fora (Local Authorities, Greater Manchester Police, PCT’s etc) adopts local plans which require local actions at the various alert systems across the health economy… Seasonal flu staff vaccination programmes are promoted and commence in October… The Trust also has Business Continuity plans in place to deal with a whole range of potential service interruptions such as staff shortages and severe weather and these are tested regularly.”

Davies added that they receive alerts from a number of agencies including the Met Office and the Environment Agency. “The Greater Manchester Fire service also informed MCFly that they are developing their “adverse weather plans to be more robust in light of conditions we expect to see in the future.” Ecocities, the Manchester University and Bruntwood project established to create a climate adaptation blueprint for Greater Manchester by the end of 2011, replied that the impact and implications of heavy snow wasn’t something they had studied in detail.

We’re not predicting heavy snow, or hoping for it. What we’re saying is given how weird the weather is – the hottest that, the wettest this – there’s a better than zero chance of heavy snow. It would be irresponsible not to make plans and – on the evidence of our investigation – irresponsible to rely on the authorities. MCFly will investigate further…

Useful suggestions: 

On the 12 of September, we asked a group of concerned citzens attending a Steady State Manchester meeting, about what preparations they would make for snow. Here are some of their useful suggestions:

* Lobby government re: fuel poverty
* Make a “snowday” plan with your employers
* Stockpile provisions
* Form groups to clear snow
* Discussion re: fuel/energy use and alt tech
* Engage the elders and other vulnerable groups
* Publicise best practice from Canada/Scandinavia
* Know your neighbour BEFORE the disaster
* Source of local information and resources
* Prepare for subsequent floods